A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
